Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices are approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation zone, showing strong potential for a breakout driven by 6 Catalysts Driving further gains. The MACD and RSI both indicate rising bullish momentum and volume. The technical setup supports continued appreciation, and we’re closely watching for confirmation of a breakout to pursue further bullish opportunities.
Fundamentally, gold is being propelled by several macroeconomic and geopolitical developments:
- Trump delays a 50% tariff on European goods — easing immediate trade tensions.
- Ongoing tariff threats against Apple Inc. — increasing global economic uncertainty.
- U.S. House-passed tax bill projected to add $2.3–$3 trillion to the deficit.
- Expected Senate revisions to the tax bill — injecting fiscal unpredictability.
- Trade-related risk-off sentiment — weakening the Dollar and favoring safe havens.
- Bullion gained nearly 5% last week, signaling growing demand for gold amid instability.
If technicals align with this macro backdrop, many analysts anticipate a gold bulls eye breakout with potential for the strongest weekly rise in over a month.
SILVER
Silver prices are also gaining strength. The MACD and RSI show increasing bullish momentum, supported by a strong bounce off the EMA200. Silver appears ready to challenge the resistance level at 33.5028, and a break above it would confirm further upside. With investors turning to silver as a more accessible alternative to gold, we expect continued demand and buying opportunities this week.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar weakens amid mixed messaging from the Trump administration. The delay of EU tariffs lifted the Euro, while fresh tariff threats on Apple and looming fiscal instability from Trump’s spending plans further erode Dollar confidence.
Technically, the MACD and RSI indicate increased selling pressure, with price action showing a bearish continuation. We remain bearish on the Dollar in the short term.
GBP/USD
The Pound is rising sharply, supported by Dollar weakness and Trump’s EU deal delay. MACD and RSI both show strong bullish volume and momentum. The uptrend is likely to continue this week, offering bullish setups in GBP/USD.
AUD/USD
The Aussie has broken out of consolidation and is trending above 0.65250. MACD and RSI confirm growing bullish momentum. Key economic releases this week — CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday) — will shape direction, especially as a 65% chance of a rate cut in July is now priced in.
For now, bullish opportunities exist, but volatility is expected midweek.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi shows strong bullish momentum as the RBNZ prepares to cut rates to 3.25% on Wednesday. MACD and RSI support buying pressure, but uncertainty around future rate moves may cause pre-announcement volatility.
Expect consolidation or retracement before a potential post-announcement breakout. Cautious optimism is warranted.
EUR/USD
The Euro has broken out of consolidation and is gaining against the Dollar. MACD and RSI support a bullish continuation. Progress in EU-US trade talks strengthens the bullish case. We’re watching for more buying setups.
USD/JPY
The Yen gains strength as Asian equities rise on easing tariff fears. Technicals show bearish continuation, with MACD volume growing and RSI nearing oversold territory.
Risk sentiment and bond market stabilization contribute to further bearish outlook for USD/JPY.
USD/CHF
The Swiss Franc breaks lower after failing to reclaim the EMA200. MACD and RSI show strong bearish momentum. We expect continued downside in USD/CHF and favor short positions.
USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar strengthens after Trump’s softened stance on tariffs. Market risk appetite rises, and technicals support CAD buying. MACD and RSI both point to bearish continuation for USD/CAD.
We maintain a short bias and expect more downside in the days ahead.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (2/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
With the Dollar under pressure and safe-haven demand rising, gold and silver are both in strong positions. Geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty, and technical breakouts are aligning to create a high-probability environment for precise market entry on the long side of metals and select forex pairs.
This week’s highlights include the RBNZ rate decision, Australian CPI data, and further developments around the U.S. tax bill and tariffs. Use trading signal indicators to navigate volatility and seize breakout opportunities as they arise. Visit: https://richsmartfx.com/
