Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Forex Chart Patterns
Following the 10% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports on February 4, 2025, China retaliated with its own tariffs and trade measures. This escalating trade war influences forex chart patterns, with shifts driven by geopolitical tensions. China’s actions include tariffs on U.S. goods, export controls on critical minerals, and an antitrust probe into Google, signaling strategic countermeasures.
Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico are cautiously optimistic due to the 30-day U.S. tariff pause. Market uncertainty persists, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s steady interest rate policy amid inflation risks. Speculation around potential rate cuts adds to the volatility impacting worldwide economic indicators.
Commodities Overview
GOLD
GOLD hits historic highs as investors seek safe-haven assets. The delay in tariffs causes mixed signals, pushing traders towards gold. Algorithmic trading signals suggest bullish momentum, supported by strong MACD and RSI readings. Projections of $3,000/oz by March are gaining credibility amid economic uncertainty.
SILVER
SILVER follows GOLD’s upward trend, with modest gains. Inflation concerns may cap its rise, but strong MACD and RSI signals support a bullish outlook. SILVER remains vital in diversified capital distribution strategies.
Forex Market Analysis
DXY
The dollar index (DXY) has filled its gap, with support from EMA200. However, technical indicators like MACD and RSI remain inconclusive, reflecting volatility in breakout trading methods.
GBPUSD
The Pound shows recovery but remains bearish until it breaks key resistance. The EMA200 and MACD indicate growing buying momentum, yet caution is advised.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar tests its consolidation range, buoyed by tariff delays. While bullish momentum is evident, anticipated RBA rate cuts may lead to consolidation.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi dollar mirrors AUDUSD, facing resistance at consolidation highs. Despite bullish technical signals, RBNZ rate cuts could limit gains. The EMA200 acts as support, but the bias remains bearish.
EURUSD
The Euro shows bullish signals in MACD and RSI but struggles to recover losses. Ongoing U.S.-Europe trade discussions may influence trends, with a bearish outlook prevailing until clearer signals emerge.
USDJPY
The Yen strengthens as the dollar weakens, supported by BOJ rate hike expectations. MACD and RSI show increased momentum, but the EMA200 acts as resistance. The market remains bearish.
USDCHF
The Franc shows bearish momentum without significant fundamental shifts. Technical indicators suggest continued selling pressure with no immediate reversal signs.
USDCAD
The CAD tests support levels, with potential consolidation due to the tariff delay. The MACD hints at temporary buying momentum, but the overall trend remains bearish, influenced by Fed policies.
COT REPORT ANALYSIS
- AUD: WEAK (5/5)
- GBP: WEAK (4/5)
- CAD: WEAK (4/5)
- EUR: WEAK (4/5)
- JPY: WEAK (1/5)
- CHF: WEAK (5/5)
- USD: STRONG (4/5)
- NZD: WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD: STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER: STRONG (4/5)
Understanding these trends helps traders refine strategies, focusing on forex chart patterns, optimizing capital distribution strategies, and navigating changes in worldwide economic indicators.
