Market Analysis: Focus on Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks
Gold continues its ascent, driven by ongoing trade tariff discussions and geopolitical factors. Meanwhile, the dollar faces selling pressure, and other currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD show signs of increased bullish momentum. As market volatility increases amid tariff-related concerns, traders are watching closely for potential market-moving announcements. Here’s a detailed analysis of key market movements and forecasts for the coming days.
GOLD: Bullish Momentum Continues Amid Trade Tariff Concerns
Gold prices are reaching new highs as concerns over global trade tensions, particularly trade tariffs, continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets. The MACD indicates an increase in selling volume, but the RSI remains strong, signaling sustained buying interest.
As the market focuses on the upcoming tariff discussions, we anticipate further upside in gold prices, though short-term pullbacks are possible as the market consolidates. The bullish structure remains intact, suggesting continued strength in the precious metal.
SILVER: Bullish Continuation Expected
Silver prices have bounced off the 34.0252 level, reinforcing the potential for further bullish movement. The MACD shows increasing volume, with both bullish and bearish pressure, while the RSI indicates continued buying momentum.
Given the overall bullish price action, we expect silver prices to continue rising in the coming days. However, if silver struggles to break above key resistance levels, we may see further consolidation before the next upward move.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Bearish Shift Amid Economic Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar is under pressure after breaking below the EMA200 and losing its bullish structure. The MACD shows increasing selling volume, and the RSI indicates a shift toward bearish momentum.
With the U.S. administration’s tariff plans weighing on market sentiment, we expect continued selling in the dollar. Despite signaling oversold conditions, the RSI is not reflecting the full strength of the move, suggesting further downside risk unless a shift in sentiment occurs.
GBPUSD: Bullish Momentum Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The British pound is showing increased bullish volume, with the MACD and RSI confirming the momentum. However, consolidation continues as traders await Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.
We anticipate continued buying in the coming days, but the potential for heightened volatility remains due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policy. We’ll continue to monitor price action and wait for a breakout above key resistance levels to confirm the next move.
AUDUSD: Consolidation Extends, Waiting for Clarity
The Aussie dollar remains in extended consolidation as traders wait for clarity on trade policies, particularly U.S. tariff decisions. Both the MACD and RSI are neutral, indicating a lack of momentum in either direction.
We remain on the sidelines for now, as a definitive breakout is needed before a clearer directional bias can be established. The market is likely to stay in consolidation until there’s more certainty in global trade negotiations.
NZDUSD: Selling Pressure Increases, Awaiting Key Test
The New Zealand dollar is showing increasing selling pressure, with the RSI reflecting heightened bearish momentum. The MACD suggests that selling volume is picking up, and prices are expected to test the 0.56859 level.
We expect further downside in the Kiwi, with a potential move to test the lower support levels. A clear break below 0.56859 would confirm a bearish trend. Until then, we remain cautious and watch for confirmation of the next move.
EURUSD: Bullish Trend After EMA200 Breakout
The Euro has seen a shift to bullish movement after breaking above the EMA200. Both the MACD and RSI are reflecting increased volume and momentum, confirming the trend reversal.
We anticipate continued buying pressure in the Euro, as long as the breakout holds. While a pullback or reversal is always possible, the overall structure suggests further upside in the coming days.
USDJPY: Bearish Sentiment Amid Tariff Concerns
The Japanese yen has experienced increased selling momentum, particularly in light of ongoing concerns about U.S. tariffs. Both the MACD and RSI reflect growing bearish pressure, signaling potential further downside.
However, the yen’s weakness is being supported by a broader risk-off sentiment, especially as Trump’s tariff policy takes shape. If the yen breaks below critical support levels, we expect the bearish movement to continue in USD/JPY.
USDCHF: Bullish Momentum Continues Amid Consolidation
The Swiss franc has strengthened after breaking out of a smaller consolidation range. The MACD and RSI both indicate growing bearish momentum, which supports the expectation of continued selling pressure.
Given the ongoing shift toward a risk-off sentiment, both the franc and yen are benefiting from the broader market dynamics. We expect further downside in USD/CHF if the trend continues.
USDCAD: Consolidation Continues Ahead of Tariff Announcement
The Canadian dollar remains in consolidation, awaiting a clearer picture ahead of the tariff decision on April 2. With no clear directional movement, we remain cautious and will reassess once price action confirms the next move.
Until the tariff decision is made, USDCAD is likely to remain in a holding pattern, and traders should wait for a breakout to establish the next market trend.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion: Bullish Sentiment in Gold and Silver Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Gold and silver continue to lead the way with bullish trends, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty. The U.S. dollar, however, faces continued selling pressure, as concerns over trade policies grow.
We expect further buying in gold and silver, while the dollar remains vulnerable. Traders should monitor key breakout levels in major currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD for potential trade opportunities.
