Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold has broken decisively out of consolidation, confirming a bullish breakout before yesterday’s session closed. Both the MACD and RSI indicate strong upside momentum, supported by a wave of fundamental events weakening the U.S. Dollar: 7 Forces Driving Gold’s Breakout as Dollar Weakens
- Renewed tariff concerns targeting nations not “negotiating in good faith”
- A credit downgrade of the U.S. government by Moody’s
- A wait-and-see stance from the Federal Reserve on rate cuts
- Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
- Trump’s withdrawal from mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- Anticipation of a vote on Trump’s major tax reform
- Safe-haven buying driven by increased macro uncertainty
With both technicals and fundamentals aligned, gold now looks poised to challenge or even surpass historical highs. Traders seeking precise market entry should monitor momentum and key breakout retests for high-conviction long setups.
SILVER
Silver remains undervalued relative to gold but is now showing rising momentum. MACD and RSI reflect increasing volume and potential for upside. In a broader risk-off setting, silver could benefit from spillover demand as a secondary hedge against dollar weakness.
We maintain a cautiously bullish view, with further gains expected if gold continues to lead.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar is weakening across the board. Technicals show growing bearish momentum via MACD and RSI. The current sentiment is heavily influenced by fiscal instability and rate-cut speculation.
Short-term volatility may remain elevated, but structurally the Dollar appears fragile. Trading signal indicators support a continuation lower unless sentiment rapidly shifts.
GBP/USD
The Pound has broken out above a key range, confirming bullish continuation. MACD and RSI show strong momentum, though price is approaching resistance.
We expect continued upside but remain cautious of potential pullbacks at technical ceilings. Optimal trade timing should focus on breakout confirmation or post-pullback entries.
AUD/USD
Despite Dollar weakness, the Aussie remains muted. Market sentiment is anchored by dovish expectations from the RBA:
- 25bp rate cuts expected in July and August
- Potential terminal rate of 3.1% by November
Technically, the Aussie is still range-bound. Until a structural break occurs, we remain neutral.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi has shown bullish attempts but struggles with follow-through. MACD and RSI still point upward, offering hope for continuation—especially if structural resistance is cleared.
RBNZ dovishness may cap upside for now, but NZD remains technically stronger than AUD. Look for confirmation via breakout levels before entering.
EUR/USD
The Euro has shifted bullishly, pushing above recent resistance. MACD and RSI confirm upward strength, though RSI is nearing overbought territory.
A minor pullback may occur, but overall bias remains to the upside as long as support holds. Precise market entry is best timed on dips within the trend.
USD/JPY
The Yen continues to gain, reinforcing a bearish setup for USD/JPY. MACD reflects strong bearish volume, and RSI suggests temporary oversold conditions.
We expect further downside after a minor correction. Short setups remain viable until fundamental catalysts disrupt Yen demand.
USD/CHF
The Franc is rallying, dragging USD/CHF lower. Technicals remain bearish, with consistent downside pressure seen on both MACD and RSI.
We anticipate more weakness in USD/CHF and recommend staying with the trend on short setups.
USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar is strengthening, and USD/CAD is losing support. MACD and RSI indicate a firm bearish move. Unless a reversal pattern emerges, we expect continued downside pressure.
This pair remains a solid candidate for trend-following short strategies.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold’s breakout is being powered by a perfect storm of macro and technical factors. As the Dollar continues to weaken, safe-haven flows are shifting toward both gold and silver. Forex majors like GBP/USD and EUR/USD are confirming bullish continuations, while USD/JPY and USD/CAD are falling apart.
In this landscape, precise market entry, disciplined risk management, and attention to macro catalysts are critical. Use trading signal indicators and breakout zones to time positions effectively as the market moves toward historical inflection points. Visit: https://richsmartfx.com/
