Market Overview
This week, several major economic data releases are expected to influence global market movements. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its Cash Rate decision and release its accompanying Rate Statement on Tuesday. Market expectations suggest there is little chance of a rate cut this month. Later in the week, on Thursday, Australia will release its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, providing critical insights into the country’s labor market performance.
In the United States, inflation and labor market data will take center stage. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published, offering a key measure of inflation trends. Following this, Thursday will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Unemployment Claims data, which are expected to further clarify the state of the U.S. economy.
Canada will also see significant economic developments this week, with the Bank of Canada (BOC) releasing its rate decision and statement on Wednesday. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, alongside the European Central Bank (ECB), which will also reveal its monetary policy direction. Rounding out the week in the UK, the Pound will be in focus as the United Kingdom releases its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Friday.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices remain stagnant despite the release of last week’s economic data. While a surge in buying activity stemmed from shifting market expectations of a potential interest rate cut this December, concerns linger about weakening gold prices due to limited support. The anticipated strength of the U.S. dollar under the Trump administration could weigh heavily on gold’s prospects moving forward.
Technical indicators reflect this mixed sentiment. The MACD shows gains for buyers but with reduced momentum and volume. Meanwhile, the RSI remains directionless, indicating a period of consolidation. Price action continues to respect the broader bearish trend, as gold struggles to break above the previous swing high. For now, traders are watching for clearer price movements to gauge the market’s next steps.
SILVER
Silver prices experienced a brief rally but stagnated under the key level of 31.4724. Technical indicators suggest an increasing potential for continued selling pressure. The MACD reflects growing strength and volume for bearish momentum, while the RSI remains relatively flat.
Despite a short-lived bullish shift that pushed silver above its previous swing high, analysts warn that this upward move may be fleeting. The dollar’s anticipated strength in the coming year remains a significant headwind for silver prices.
DXY
The U.S. dollar is under pressure, with prices falling below 105.840 following positive data supporting a potential rate cut this December. The CME FedWatch Tool places the probability of a December rate cut at 83%.
While CPI data will play a key role in shaping expectations further, the dollar could experience short-term weakness leading up to the rate cut. However, analysts forecast a substantial recovery in dollar strength heading into next year. Technical indicators like the MACD and RSI show bullish momentum building, even as overall price action points to a short-term bearish trend following a break below the previous swing low.
GBPUSD
The British pound has strengthened, showing increased buying momentum as overall price action shifts in favor of the currency. Analysts attribute this to market anticipation of a December U.S. rate cut, which is already being priced into dollar weakness ahead of a predicted surge in strength next year.
Technical indicators highlight conflicting signals. The MACD is strengthening for bearish momentum, while the RSI divergence points to a potential pullback. Despite this, the underlying buying momentum suggests further gains for the pound in the near term.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar continues to exhibit weakness, with price action adhering to a bearish trend. The MACD shows increasing strength for sellers, and the RSI reflects exaggerated levels, despite a minor pullback from recent lows.
EURUSD
The euro faces increased selling pressure, as the MACD and RSI reflect strong bearish momentum. However, oversold conditions suggest the potential for a near-term reversal, with price action hinting at buying continuation. Traders remain cautious, balancing short-term technical signals against the broader market outlook.
USDJPY
The dollar-yen pair shows no clear direction, with both the RSI and MACD in consolidation mode. Momentum and volume remain low, as traders await guidance from the Bank of Japan’s December rate decision. The market remains in a holding pattern, looking for signs of dollar strength or yen policy shifts to determine its trajectory.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc has gained against a weakened dollar, with bullish momentum reflected in the MACD and RSI. However, the RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pause in the current rally. The franc’s strength highlights its appeal as a safe-haven currency during periods of dollar volatility.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar followed through with the anticipated buying momentum, as seen in its overall price action structure. While the day began with a weaker CAD, the Asian session brought a decisive shift to bullish momentum. The MACD shows growing strength, but the RSI indicates exaggerated selling levels despite minor pullbacks. This suggests that while the CAD remains strong, caution is warranted as it approaches overbought levels.
COT Report Analysis
- AUD – STRONG (2/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
