GOLD
Gold saw an interesting shift following Trump’s confirmation of new tariffs. Prices rose to an acceptable level before potentially encountering stronger selling pressure. The MACD is displaying increased buying volume, while the RSI is stabilizing after previous selling momentum. This suggests a potential short-term pullback before a clearer directional move emerges. Price breakout confirmation is needed to determine if the short-term pullback will reverse or if a further downside movement is imminent.
SILVER
Silver prices are experiencing a temporary increase in buying at 31.4724, but this movement is not strong enough to shift the broader bearish momentum. The RSI is signaling both overbought and oversold conditions, indicating consolidation. Meanwhile, the MACD remains muted, showing little conviction from buyers or sellers. False breakout detection suggests that recent moves may lack the strength to sustain upward momentum. Given this setup, we anticipate continued selling unless a stronger catalyst emerges.
DXY (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)
The dollar experienced a significant decline after falling below 106.848. Despite this, overall market momentum remains tilted toward buying. While we continue to seek more opportunities to buy the dollar, current indicators suggest potential short-term weakness. The RSI is showing increased selling pressure after reaching overbought levels, and the MACD is growing in bearish volume. Volatility-based strategies suggest a potential shift back toward a bullish trend, should Trump proceed with the announced tariffs. A single aggressive move could shift momentum back to buying, making it essential to stay cautious.
GBPUSD
The Pound has seen a renewed push higher due to the dollar’s lackluster performance. This has shifted market momentum back toward buying, though the potential for selling remains strong. The RSI is oversold, while the MACD is nearing a bearish crossover despite the recent buying momentum. These conditions suggest two possible scenarios: a brief pullback or consolidation before resuming the uptrend, or a continued sell-off in line with upcoming dollar-strengthening fundamentals. Momentum trading setups are crucial to spotting which direction the price may take in the near term.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar remains in consolidation. The MACD is signaling growing selling momentum, but the RSI is oversold, indicating a possible short-term bounce. However, with the RSI reaching extreme levels, the possibility of further selling increases once price stabilizes. The direction will largely depend on how Trump announces the tariffs later today. Range breakout techniques could help identify price movements once the market exits consolidation.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is mirroring the Aussie, remaining in consolidation while awaiting further market direction. The MACD is on the verge of crossing lower following a softening of bullish volume, and the RSI remains oversold. The MACD’s exaggerated prints suggest that selling pressure may normalize before continuing lower. Volatility-based strategies can help identify when the market is ready for a breakout.
EURUSD
The Euro is consolidating near the upper boundary of its range, creating increased selling pressure. While the MACD is close to crossing lower, the RSI is still indicating a continuation of bullish momentum. This mixed signal suggests that the market is at a crucial inflection point, and we will need to monitor how price action develops in the coming days. Price breakout confirmation is critical to determining whether the Euro will follow through with its bullish trend or experience a reversal.
USDJPY
The Yen is showing stronger selling potential, with the MACD reflecting growing bearish volume and the RSI signaling increased selling momentum. The RSI’s exaggerated movements, despite relatively muted price action, suggest that further downside is likely. Given the broader fundamentals, we expect selling to continue. Momentum trading setups indicate that traders should look for short entries in the Yen.
USDCHF
The Franc is under pressure, with selling momentum increasing. The MACD is showing strong bearish movement, and the RSI is normalizing the recent sell-off. Price has also fallen below the EMA200, nearing 0.89431, reinforcing expectations for continued selling. However, fundamental factors could introduce additional volatility in the coming sessions. False breakout detection is important in anticipating potential reversals or continuation patterns in the Franc.
USDCAD
The CAD remains weak, with price action showing little change. We expect continued buying momentum, particularly after Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement. The MACD remains bullish, while the RSI is consolidating, setting up a potential continuation of the buying trend in the coming days. Price breakout confirmation will be essential to confirm the continuation of the buying trend once the market reacts to the tariff news.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (2/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – WEAK (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
