Market Analysis
Gold prices have seen a pullback after a period of consolidation, but the broader bullish sentiment remains intact. The recent pullback is largely attributed to President Trump’s comments on potentially softening reciprocal tariffs and some exemptions. The dollar has strengthened in response, while gold and silver face selling pressure. Geopolitical tensions continue to influence the precious metals market, though the U.S. dollar’s recent bullish momentum is shaping the market outlook for the days ahead.
GOLD
Gold prices have consolidated after reaching record highs, with the MACD showing signs of potential further selling. The RSI has also moved into overbought territory, signaling that a retracement could follow.
The fundamental shift in sentiment, driven by Trump’s announcement on tariff adjustments, has lessened concerns regarding the escalation of trade wars, causing a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Despite this, the overall structure remains bullish, and we anticipate further buying opportunities if the market retraces and tests lower levels.
SILVER
Silver prices have weakened in tandem with gold, with the market showing increased selling momentum. The MACD indicates rising bearish volume, and the RSI remains neutral but leans toward the oversold side.
While silver has been seen as a hedge against gold’s price fluctuations, the bearish outlook for gold has spilled over, suppressing silver’s price action. We expect further selling in silver in the coming days, with the EMA200 acting as a key resistance level. Once silver shows signs of stabilizing, we may look for buying opportunities in the future.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar strengthened after President Trump’s comments about the potential for a lighter tariff plan. The dollar has broken above 104.101, signaling a shift to a bullish bias.
The RSI reflects increasing bullish momentum, though the MACD remains consolidated, lacking the volume necessary for sustained, larger price movements. We expect the dollar to maintain its strength, but further consolidation or a test of resistance levels is likely. We anticipate continued buying in the dollar if these conditions hold.
GBPUSD
The British pound has faced increasing selling pressure after failing to break above 1.29966. The MACD has crossed low, and previous buying momentum has been insufficient to push prices higher.
With the RSI indicating overbought conditions, we expect further bearish pressure in GBP/USD. While market consolidation persists, the possibility of a rebound exists. However, we need a clearer trend to emerge before committing to any directional calls.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar remains within a broad consolidation range, despite the dollar’s strength. The RSI signals potential for further downside as overbought conditions are reached. The MACD is turning lower, indicating that bearish momentum could persist.
We are cautious in the short term and await a clearer break of structure before adjusting our outlook. The overall trend remains neutral until a decisive move is made in either direction.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar has faced increased selling pressure, though it remains some distance from confirming a full trend shift. The MACD is leaning bearish, while the RSI shows growing selling momentum.
The kiwi remains near key support levels, with a potential test of 0.56859 looming. If this level breaks, a further decline is possible. However, until a definitive breakdown occurs, we maintain a cautious bullish outlook.
EURUSD
The Euro has broken below its consolidation zone, raising the likelihood of further declines. The MACD indicates increased selling volume, and the RSI reflects growing bearish momentum.
Despite this shift, the market has not yet broken key support levels. A test of the EMA200 is likely before confirming a further selloff. We will wait for a clear breakdown before committing to a bearish position, as sentiment remains mixed
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to weaken, with the Nikkei gaining strength in response to easing concerns over Trump’s upcoming tariffs. The MACD is showing increased buying volume, and the RSI indicates bullish momentum, though not yet overbought.
We expect the yen to continue weakening against the dollar as the overall market sentiment remains bullish for USD/JPY. A short-term retracement could occur, but the bias remains to the upside.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc remains in consolidation, struggling to break below key support at 0.87534. The MACD is showing reduced selling momentum, and the RSI is signaling oversold conditions.
Should the franc break above the upper boundary, there is potential for bullish continuation. The overall outlook remains neutral, but any bullish breakout could shift the trend toward further strength in USD/CHF.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar remains within its established consolidation range. While price action remains flat, the EMA200 is acting as a resistance level, signaling the possibility of continued selling pressure.
We remain cautious and will monitor the CAD for any clear breakout in either direction. A clearer price action signal will provide better guidance on the next move.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Conclusion
Gold and silver are facing selling pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthens. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and President Trump’s tariff announcements.
With several currency pairs facing bearish pressure, traders should focus on breakout confirmations and potential shifts in market sentiment. As economic conditions evolve, caution is advised when entering new positions.
