GOLD
Gold prices are climbing despite newly imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Fears of an escalating trade war are dampening the dollar’s strength, even as inflationary pressures rise. While tariffs typically boost domestic inflation, the broader economic strain on U.S. trade adds to market uncertainty.
This volatility-based strategy highlights gold’s resilience, with price action favoring further appreciation. While the MACD has crossed lower, hinting at possible downside, the RSI is already signaling oversold levels, suggesting that selling may be exhausted. A price breakout confirmation remains crucial, with the EMA200 acting as strong support, reinforcing momentum trading setups for bullish traders.
SILVER
Silver prices are also gaining traction as the dollar faces heightened risk and uncertainty. With gold expected to push higher, silver could benefit from increased demand once gold becomes overbought. The MACD reflects muted selling volume, signaling potential for a stronger buy-in.
The RSI remains in consolidation, failing to recognize the slow price rise as a decisive bullish move. However, a range breakout technique above the EMA200 could confirm further upside. Traders looking for momentum trading setups should watch for a strong confirmation signal before entering.
DXY
The dollar has suffered a steep decline, dropping below 106.111 and shifting price action back to bearish momentum. Although the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, this likely indicates only a minor correction rather than a full reversal.
The RSI, already marking overbought levels, suggests that the broader trend remains downward. False breakout detection is essential here, as any short-lived spikes could be misleading before another wave of selling emerges.
GBPUSD
The pound is seeing renewed buying momentum after bouncing off 1.25740, contrary to expectations of a continued sell-off. The MACD is consolidating, reflecting the high price levels, while the RSI is normalizing, suggesting strong momentum for further upside.
With potential U.S. tariffs on Europe looming, traders should focus on volatility-based strategies to navigate rapid price fluctuations. A confirmed price breakout confirmation above key resistance zones could signal further bullish movement.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar remains in consolidation, extending its lower boundary but bouncing off it, defying expectations of strong selling momentum. The MACD is picking up buying volume, and the RSI reflects increased strength, remaining subdued despite testing the EMA200.
While it is still too early to call a full trend reversal, we are closely monitoring potential momentum trading setups. The current movement stems from dollar weakness rather than internal strength, reinforcing the need for range breakout techniques to confirm directional bias.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is mirroring the Aussie, consolidating within its range. Despite an earlier break below, the price rebounded and is now testing the upper boundary and the EMA200. The MACD is approaching a crossover after muted volume, while the RSI suggests buying strength despite price fluctuations.
As traders look for false breakout detection, patience remains key. Like the Aussie, the Kiwi needs a solid confirmation before establishing a definitive trend shift.
EURUSD
The euro has surged following the dollar’s weakness, benefiting from renewed buying momentum. The MACD is strengthening, and the RSI reflects increasing bullish momentum.This rally, contrary to earlier expectations, suggests that concerns about the U.S. economy’s future trajectory are fueling demand for the euro. Momentum trading setups remain favorable, with traders seeking long positions in this shifting market.
USDJPY
The yen is consolidating while extending its range. After reaching new lows, it is now retesting the EMA200. The MACD is gaining bullish volume, but the RSI is already in overbought territory, signaling a potential end to the recent uptrend.
A range breakout technique remains crucial for traders awaiting a decisive move. Until then, we maintain a neutral stance, looking for clearer signals before making a commitment.
USDCHF
The franc is regaining strength as investors seek stability amid rising unpredictability in global markets. This renewed demand has shifted overall price action back to selling. The RSI is overbought at current levels, while the MACD has crossed higher, indicating potential for more upside.
However, with trade war tensions escalating, market movements remain unpredictable. Employing a volatility-based strategy will help traders capitalize on sudden price swings while mitigating risk.
USDCAD
The CAD remains in consolidation at elevated levels. Both the MACD and RSI confirm this stagnation, reflecting a market waiting for direction. Despite the dollar’s sharp drop, CAD weakness persists, explaining the market’s lack of response.
Traders should watch closely for price breakout confirmation, as an eventual move out of this consolidation phase could provide significant trading opportunities.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (2/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – WEAK (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion
As the market continues to shift with evolving economic policies and trade developments, employing volatility-based strategies, price breakout confirmation, and range breakout techniques will be essential for traders. False breakout detection remains critical in filtering out noise and ensuring strong trade setups.
By staying informed and applying momentum trading setups, traders can navigate these uncertain times effectively, capitalizing on high-probability opportunities.
