Market Analysis
Gold prices have pulled back from record highs but maintain the broader bullish sentiment, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and potential rate cuts later this year. The U.S. dollar has gained strength, breaking above key resistance levels, adding pressure on gold. Meanwhile, silver has followed gold’s downturn, signaling increased bearish momentum. Traders are eyeing further opportunities as market conditions adjust, with particular focus on upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions.
GOLD
Gold prices have retreated from their recent highs, with the MACD reflecting stable selling momentum and the RSI showing signs of increased selling pressure. Despite this short-term pullback, the broader bullish trend remains intact.
Geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate cuts later this year continue to support gold’s overall upward trajectory. Traders should watch for a potential test of lower levels before resuming buying, as the market consolidates and prepares for future price moves.
SILVER
Silver prices have followed gold’s lead and experienced a decline. The MACD is indicating increased bearish momentum, while the RSI is also showing signs of selling pressure. The EMA200 is acting as resistance, preventing further upside movement for silver.
As silver remains subdued, we anticipate further selling in the coming days, but the broader bullish trend for silver may reemerge when market conditions align. Traders should watch for confirmation before entering long positions.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar has strengthened, breaking above 104.101, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The RSI shows growing bullish momentum, and the MACD reflects increased buying pressure.
Although the dollar is showing strength, the breakout is still facing resistance. If the 104.084 level holds, consolidation may continue, but a clear break above this level could signal further upside. Traders should monitor any upcoming Federal Reserve statements for additional insights into the dollar’s movement.
GBPUSD
The British pound has shown increased selling pressure after failing to break above the 1.29966 resistance level. This failure to maintain bullish momentum has led to a drop below the previous higher low, reinforcing a bearish outlook for GBP/USD.
The MACD continues to show downward movement, while the RSI supports further bearish sentiment. We expect more selling opportunities in the near term, but traders should wait for clearer confirmation before taking a position.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar has weakened, with the RSI signaling overbought conditions and the MACD turning lower. While price action remains within a broader consolidation range, the outlook leans toward further downside if the lower boundary is tested.
We remain cautious on AUD/USD and await a decisive break of structure before confirming a stronger bearish trend. Traders should monitor key support levels closely for breakout opportunities.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar has faced increased selling pressure, with prices dropping below the previous upper zone and the EMA200. The MACD reflects bearish momentum, and the RSI shows growing selling pressure.
Although the kiwi remains some distance from a complete trend shift, further downside testing may occur if the support at 0.56859 is breached. We continue to monitor the situation for a clearer directional move.
EURUSD
The Euro remains range-bound, with a potential for further downside in the coming days. A drop below the EMA200 could reinforce the bearish outlook, though the MACD remains flat, signaling a lack of strong momentum.
With the RSI indicating stronger bearish momentum, we anticipate further selling in the Euro. However, we will wait for a clear breakout of the current consolidation range before making directional calls.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to weaken, as the MACD reflects increasing buying volume for the U.S. dollar. Despite the RSI remaining volatile, the overall market bias points to further bullish movement.
Yen weakness, combined with economic factors in Japan and global market trends, creates a potential buying opportunity for USD/JPY. Traders should look for confirmation of further upside before entering positions.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc remains in consolidation, struggling to break below the 0.87534 level. Both the MACD and RSI indicate neutral conditions, suggesting that a breakout in either direction may occur soon.
While the franc remains range-bound, the increasing likelihood of further selling pressure suggests that a bearish breakout may be on the horizon. Traders should wait for confirmation before taking positions.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar continues to trade within its established range, showing little movement in either direction. Given the lack of clear direction, we continue to focus on broader economic conditions before making calls on USDCAD.
We remain cautious and await clearer price action before committing to any directional positions.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Conclusion
Gold and silver continue to face consolidation and bearish pressure, while the U.S. dollar has shown strength in recent sessions. Geopolitical factors, including tariff tensions and trade wars, continue to support precious metals, but short-term retracements are possible.
Forex markets are showing mixed signals, with some currency pairs like GBP/USD and NZD/USD facing downward pressure, while USD/JPY and USD/CHF are showing bullish potential.
As market conditions evolve, traders should remain cautious of sudden price shifts and stay informed on key economic data and central bank policy statements.
