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Gold Rebounds on Dollar Dip, Forex Majors Stay in Range

Market Analysis

GOLD

Gold Rebounds sprices have climbed back to the EMA200, showing resilience after an extended downtrend. The unexpected magnitude of this bounce reflects weakness in the U.S. dollar, spurred by recent disinflationary data.

Technically, MACD shows rising bullish volume and RSI is recovering from oversold conditions, supporting a cautiously bullish outlook. However, this move may lead into a broader consolidation range, so traders should be cautious. Precise market entry near breakout levels will be critical for navigating potential shifts in momentum.

SILVER

Silver remains in tight consolidation. No significant breakout has occurred, and both MACD and RSI are neutral. Until a clear direction emerges, we advise trading only within defined support/resistance boundaries. Trading signal indicators suggest continued range activity.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)

The Dollar has weakened after soft inflation data:

  • Core CPI: +0.2% (vs. 0.3% forecast)
  • Core PPI: -0.4%
  • Core Retail Sales: +0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast)

These data points introduce disinflationary pressure and diminish expectations of aggressive Fed tightening. Current futures pricing (via LSEG) places a 75.4% probability on a 25 bps cut by September. Still, Fed Chair Powell urges patience, stating more data is needed.

Technically, the EMA200 is acting as support. MACD shows weakening bullish momentum, and RSI remains mildly bullish. A break below the EMA200 could lead to further downside. Forex trade execution speed will matter if volatility increases with upcoming macro releases.

GBP/USD

The Pound remains in a tight range. MACD and RSI are neutral, offering no directional edge. We recommend standing aside until a confirmed breakout occurs. For now, short-term strategies should focus on reaction to structure.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is also stuck in a sideways structure. Dollar volatility is keeping directional clarity muted. Until momentum picks up, this pair is best left for range-trading or avoided altogether. Patience is required for optimal trade timing.

NZD/USD

The Kiwi is in consolidation but showing subtle bearish pressure. MACD and RSI both reflect building downside momentum. A break of support may trigger continuation moves. Traders should prepare for short setups if volume confirms breakdown.

EUR/USD

The Euro is testing the EMA200 near the 1.11747 resistance. Price is compressed in a tight range, with MACD and RSI leaning slightly bearish. This setup may lead to a breakout move soon. We advise waiting for a clear signal before engaging. Precise market entry is essential in a breakout scenario.

USD/JPY

The Yen continues to strengthen, as expected. MACD and RSI confirm bearish momentum for USD/JPY. The broader sentiment supports a continued drop in this pair, making it one of the stronger short-side setups.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF is weakening, driven by dollar softness. MACD and RSI point to increased selling momentum. If price breaks current support, a larger correction may unfold. Trading signal indicators favor continued short bias.

USD/CAD

CAD is showing strength after multiple failed breakouts in USD/CAD. The pair is now consolidating near support, with MACD showing rising sell volume and RSI near oversold.

A bounce from 1.39410 or the EMA200 is possible, but unless confirmed, we remain neutral. Forex entry strategy should revolve around reaction at this key level.

COT Reports Analysis

  • AUD – WEAK (4/5)
  • GBP – STRONG (5/5)
  • CAD – WEAK (5/5)
  • EUR – STRONG (4/5)
  • JPY – STRONG (5/5)
  • CHF – WEAK (3/5)
  • USD – MIXED
  • NZD – WEAK (3/5)
  • GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
  • SILVER – STRONG (5/5)

Final Thoughts

Gold’s rebound and the Dollar’s retreat reflect shifting sentiment due to disinflation and soft retail data. Forex majors remain in tight ranges, awaiting directional catalysts.

In the meantime, traders should prioritize precise market entry, use trading signal indicators for confirmation, and be prepared for breakout volatility. Until broader macro clarity returns, flexibility and reaction speed will be your edge.

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