Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD prices continue to surge, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions. The White House announced tariff exclusions on Friday, but Trump clarified over the weekend that these will be short-lived—especially for smartphones and computers. This signals that the broader reciprocal tariff measures remain in force and will resume if no progress is made during the 90-day pause.

Technically, the MACD is showing increasing selling volume even as prices rise—an early indication of healthy bullish continuation, often seen in strong uptrends. Meanwhile, the RSI remains high but is recovering from near overbought levels, hinting at sustained buying interest. Overall, GOLD is expected to remain in favor as geopolitical uncertainty and trade risks persist. These economic indicators suggest that, despite short-term volatility, gold remains a solid safe-haven asset for investors.

SILVER

SILVER has flipped bullish after breaking above the EMA200. Both the MACD and RSI confirm this shift, showing rising bullish volume and momentum. The correlation between GOLD and SILVER continues to guide sentiment: as long as SILVER stays relatively suppressed while GOLD soars, it’s a sign that GOLD’s rally is sustainable. Once SILVER starts gaining rapidly, it often suggests that GOLD is overextended. Furthermore, Dollar weakness continues to fuel strength in precious metals overall. Traders should consider trade timing carefully, as SILVER’s movements will likely signal when GOLD’s rally might lose steam.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

The Dollar remains under pressure. The MACD reflects upward volume divergence as prices decline, suggesting an increasing bearish bias. The RSI is frequently tagging overbought levels despite falling prices, reinforcing that selling momentum is gaining traction. With trade war tensions persisting and inflation risks looming, further Dollar weakness is likely over the medium term. The full impact of these dynamics may become more visible in the coming months. For traders looking for breakout entries, the DXY could present further opportunities for downside moves as economic indicators suggest sustained bearish pressure.

GBPUSD

The Pound is strengthening, supported by technicals. The MACD and RSI show rising bullish volume and momentum, largely driven by Dollar weakness. While we may see near-term consolidation, the broader momentum favors continued upside. We remain bullish unless a clear structural reversal occurs. Trade timing here is key—waiting for consolidation breaks or confirmation from technicals can provide profitable breakout entries in the GBPUSD pair.

AUDUSD

The Aussie Dollar also reflects continued bullish pressure. The MACD and RSI confirm rising momentum and volume. However, this strength appears more related to Dollar weakness than strong domestic fundamentals. Despite the upside bias, we remain cautious and prefer to trade conservatively until price confirms broader stability. Keep an eye on trade timing—a breakout entry might come as the Dollar continues to weaken, but caution is advised in this pair.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi follows a similar path to the Aussie, with both the MACD and RSI showing bullish alignment. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the bias remains upward. As with the AUD, this movement is tied to global Dollar sentiment rather than independent strength. Traders should look for trade timing to capitalize on any further upside movement, keeping in mind that the momentum is more Dollar-dependent than Kiwi-specific.

EURUSD

The Euro remains firm, extending gains as confirmed by increasing bullish volume and momentum on both the MACD and RSI. While a retracement could occur to test key support levels, the overall trend remains bullish. We continue to look for buying opportunities in the EUR/USD pair, as economic indicators suggest the Euro will likely continue its upward trajectory. Breakout entries could be considered if the price breaks key resistance levels with momentum.

USDJPY

The Yen is gaining strength as investors look for safety amid Dollar volatility. The MACD and RSI reflect increased bearish momentum on USD/JPY. However, we remain cautious and prefer to wait for a clearer directional breakout, as safe-haven dynamics can be short-lived or reverse suddenly depending on global developments. Trade timing will be crucial here for identifying profitable breakout entries.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc continues its bearish movement against the Dollar. Both MACD and RSI signal increasing selling momentum, supporting the expectation for continued downside. However, with signs of potential short-term retracement, we maintain a cautious outlook and will look for pullbacks as opportunities to re-enter bearish positions. Watch for trade timing as the USDCHF could see a brief recovery before the next leg down.

USDCAD

The Canadian Dollar is showing increased bearish momentum, with CAD strength dominating as USD weakens. The MACD and RSI show no signs of reversal, favoring a continuation of the trend. As long as the Dollar remains under pressure and trade dynamics worsen, we continue to look for short opportunities in this market. Keep an eye on economic indicators for CAD strength to maintain a dominant position.

COT Report Analysis

Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook:

• AUD – WEAK (3/5)
  
• GBP – WEAK (5/5)
  
• CAD – WEAK (4/5)
  
• EUR – STRONG (5/5)
  
• JPY – STRONG (5/5)
  
• CHF – WEAK (3/5)
  
• USD – STRONG (4/5)
  
• NZD – WEAK (4/5)
  
• GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
  
• SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
  

Use these ratings to validate trade timing and refine your strategy. Breakout entries are often best executed when economic indicators confirm a sustained move, and COT reports can offer insight into larger market flows.

Final Thoughts

The combination of economic indicators, trade timing, and breakout entries presents a wealth of opportunities in the current forex market. As geopolitical tensions, Dollar weakness, and commodity rallies continue to shape price action, it’s crucial for traders to stay vigilant and adapt to changing dynamics. Keep an eye on key major currency pairs and stay informed about global events that may influence the market.

By analyzing economic indicators and adjusting trade timing, traders can maximize their potential for successful entries and profitable trades. Stay ahead of the curve with real-time updates and tactical insights.