MARKET OVERVIEW
Tariffs, Dollar Movements, and Forex Chart Patterns
As highlighted in our previous analysis, it is wise not to chase trends, even when confident about market reactions to a stronger dollar. The forex chart patterns suggest caution amidst fluctuating conditions.
The dollar showed weakness following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days. However, tariffs on Chinese goods are set to begin soon, which markets perceive as inflationary. This policy shift is critical for traders relying on breakout trading methods.
Commodities Insight
GOLD
GOLD prices remain elevated amid tariff concerns, reaching new historic highs. Market volatility driven by Trump’s unpredictable policies supports GOLD’s bullish trend. Algorithmic trading signals indicate continued upward momentum, with MACD and RSI confirming increased volume and volatility.
SILVER
SILVER’s advance has paused, correlating with GOLD’s slowdown. As GOLD becomes overbought, SILVER may attract more buyers. The MACD and RSI indicate rising market volume, supporting a bullish outlook aligned with diversified capital distribution strategies.
Currency Market Analysis
DXY
The dollar index (DXY) has filled its gap and shows potential for further gains. Supported by the EMA200, DXY reflects inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties influencing worldwide economic indicators.
GBPUSD
The Pound remains bearish despite some bullish momentum in MACD and RSI. We anticipate continued sell-offs with potential short-term consolidation.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar is bearish after bouncing off the EMA200. Although MACD and RSI show buying momentum, price action favors selling opportunities.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi dollar is expected to decline further, with bearish price action confirmed by the EMA200. MACD shows buying signals, but RSI supports continued selling pressure.
EURUSD
The Euro remains bearish after filling its gap. Despite increased buying momentum, the broader trend points to further declines, reflecting shifts in worldwide economic indicators.
USDJPY
The Yen stabilizes amid BOJ’s hawkish stance. Consolidation is expected as markets await wage data that may influence BOJ’s monetary policy.
USDCHF
The Franc shows bullish momentum post-gap fill. The EMA200 supports price increases, with MACD signaling caution and RSI indicating strong buying interest.
USDCAD
The CAD weakened despite a brief rally from tariff suspensions. The pair remains bullish, with expectations for sideways movement before upward trends resume. Breakout trading methods suggest monitoring key resistance levels.
COT REPORT ANALYSIS
- AUD: WEAK (5/5)
- GBP: WEAK (4/5)
- CAD: WEAK (4/5)
- EUR: WEAK (4/5)
- JPY: WEAK (1/5)
- CHF: WEAK (5/5)
- USD: STRONG (4/5)
- NZD: WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD: STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER: STRONG (4/5)
These dynamics help traders optimize capital distribution strategies, analyze forex chart patterns, and respond to shifting worldwide economic indicators.
