GOLD
Core inflation last week turned up as expected, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold on rates. Toward the end of last week and the start of Monday, we saw a price breakout confirmation, with gold reaching its previous lower boundary and almost testing the lower high. The MACD has been gaining volume, but the RSI has signaled overbought conditions, suggesting increased market expectations for selling in the short term. However, gold’s long-term trajectory remains bullish as traders continue to use it as a hedge against the risks posed by a strengthening dollar and potential economic strain from tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Volatility-based strategies indicate that price action could fluctuate before finding strong directional movement. Slight concerns regarding the overall health of the US economy further support gold’s long-term upside, but the immediate price action still suggests continued downside movement.
SILVER
Silver prices are seeing an extension of selling momentum, with the price testing 31.4724 and appearing poised to move lower. The RSI has already signaled increased selling pressure after previously hitting overbought levels, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The MACD recently crossed up, but given the ongoing momentum, we expect it to cross back under to continue the downtrend. False breakout detection suggests that some recent recoveries in silver could be misleading, setting the stage for more declines. With these indicators aligned, we anticipate further selling in the coming days.
DXY (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)
The dollar continues to exhibit strong buying momentum, though the Monday open saw a weak start with a large gap in price. The MACD reflects this increased selling pressure, and the RSI follows through with similar momentum. Despite the short-term pullback, overall price action remains bullish, and we expect prices to test the EMA200 and 106.848 before any significant shift occurs. However, there is also a chance the price will first move back to fill the gap. More trading activity is needed for price breakout confirmation, but the broader market expectation remains in favor of a continued rise.
GBPUSD
The Pound is showing signs of shifting into a sell-off. A confirmed range breakout below 1.25740 will likely lead to continued selling. The resistance levels at the EMA200 and 1.26163 are proving effective in capping price gains. The MACD reflects strong volume, but the actual price movement remains relatively small in comparison, which suggests underlying weakness. The RSI has also signaled overbought conditions, reinforcing the expectation of increasing selling pressure. Notably, despite the dollar’s weakness over the weekend, the Pound failed to capitalize on the move, further confirming its fragility. Thus, we continue to look for selling opportunities in the coming days.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar is experiencing increased selling momentum after last week’s performance. The MACD shows strong buying volume, but as with the Pound, the price movement upward is too weak in comparison, confirming a bearish bias. The RSI is also aggressively signaling overbought conditions, reinforcing the expectation of a stronger sell-off. Momentum trading setups suggest that traders should look for opportunities to capitalize on downward movements. With all factors aligned, we remain confident in looking for further selling opportunities in this market.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is displaying similar signals, with price breaking below its lower boundaries and selling momentum increasing. The RSI and MACD show patterns consistent with those in the Pound and Aussie dollar, both confirming growing selling strength. Volatility-based strategies indicate that traders should be prepared for quick price swings before further downward continuation. With this setup, we continue to look for more selling opportunities in the market.
EURUSD
The Euro saw a significant drop, but Monday’s open provided some hope for an upward move. However, we still see increasing chances for further selling. The RSI has signaled overbought conditions, despite the MACD showing increased buying volume. Given the broader weakness and current price structure, we remain positioned for more selling opportunities in the Euro. False breakout detection will be crucial in determining whether recent upward moves are sustainable or simply short-term corrections.
USDJPY
The Yen remains within consolidation, bouncing off 150.883 while showing increased selling momentum. The MACD and RSI remain neutral, offering no clear directional bias yet. Price has broken above the EMA200 but has not yet confirmed a full shift in momentum. If it successfully breaks above 150.883, only then will we confirm a complete market shift to the upside. Until then, we expect continued consolidation. Range breakout techniques will help traders spot potential opportunities when price action exits consolidation phases.
USDCHF
The Franc’s weakness is becoming more evident, with stable upward momentum in play. While the MACD has been consolidating, the RSI has signaled oversold conditions, reflecting an increased push for buying. Momentum trading setups suggest that traders can take advantage of the upward trend by entering positions early. With this setup, we continue to look for more buying opportunities in the market.
USDCAD
The CAD remains weak, with no change in our outlook, especially as the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to be enacted soon. We await further confirmation of Trump’s decision but continue to expect more buying in the market and a stronger dollar. The RSI is already showing increasing buying momentum, further reinforcing this expectation. Price breakout confirmation will be key in determining whether the uptrend will hold or if a reversal is imminent.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (2/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – WEAK (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
