Market Overview
Asian stock markets and the U.S. dollar paused on Wednesday as investors anticipated potential rate cuts in Canada and awaited a crucial U.S. inflation report. Markets have priced in an 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. However, with Wall Street indices nearing record highs, there is a risk of disappointment.
Canada, having already cut rates by 125 basis points in this cycle, is expected to deliver another 50 basis points cut, lowering its overnight rate to 3.25%. This prediction follows a sharp rise in Canada’s unemployment rate to 6.8% in November, the highest in eight years. Similarly, markets are pricing in a European Central Bank rate cut on Thursday, and the Swiss National Bank has a 61% chance of implementing a 50-basis-point cut, potentially easing the franc’s rally.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank kept rates steady at 4.35% on Tuesday but changed its tone by removing language about maintaining restrictive policies. This shift caused the Aussie dollar to tumble, reflecting growing expectations for rate cuts.
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices have turned bullish, breaking past the previous swing high. The RSI shows strong momentum with divergence, indicating a possible market shift soon. The MACD also signals robust momentum and buying strength. Geopolitical risks and the anticipated U.S. rate cut next week support further bullish movement. Analysts predict that GOLD could reach a new high before the rate cut announcement. China resuming GOLD purchases to boost reserves also strengthens GOLD’s position.
SILVER
SILVER prices remained flat after yesterday’s trading session, showing no movement beyond the previous swing high. Current lows might represent a bottom before a bullish continuation. The RSI indicates consolidation, while the MACD suggests weakening bearish momentum with crossover signals hinting at a bullish shift. Overall, price action supports another bullish run leading into next week.
DXY
The dollar holds gains ahead of the CPI report. The RSI shows oversold conditions despite weak price pullbacks, highlighting strong bullish momentum. The MACD has recently crossed, but as with the previous crossover, this one may be short-lived. Price momentum remains consolidated as traders await inflation data that will shape next week’s rate-cut expectations. Clearer signals are needed to determine the dollar’s future direction.
GBPUSD
Current charts show the Pound in consolidation, awaiting clues from the CPI report to determine market direction. Both the MACD and RSI are neutral, reflecting market uncertainty. Further data will indicate whether the Pound breaks its current range or remains in consolidation.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar has fallen to new lows, with the MACD indicating strong bearish momentum. While the RSI signals exaggerated levels and a potential pullback, bearish continuation is expected. A deeper retracement may lead to further dollar weakness. The RBA’s decision to keep rates at 4.35%, along with Governor Michele Bullock’s cautious stance and emphasis on data dependence, suggests possible cuts in early 2024, supported by weakening economic conditions and declining business activity.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi faces increased selling momentum, supported by the RSI and MACD. Despite a minor price pullback, overbought RSI levels confirm bearish conditions. Analysts expect continued selling pressure as price action signals bearish continuation.
EURUSD
The Euro shows buying continuation, though current price action suggests consolidation. The MACD has crossed into bullish territory, but the RSI indicates overbought levels despite weak market movements. Analysts expect a bearish reversal in price momentum, with continued consolidation as traders await further ECB clarity.
USDJPY
The Yen continues to weaken as prices trend higher, showing strong buying momentum. Despite a pullback, the MACD suggests bullish continuation, and the RSI remains oversold. Market sentiment favors further price increases, indicating ongoing buying strength.
USDCHF
The Franc has weakened amid expectations of an SNB rate cut. The MACD shows increased buying momentum, supported by the RSI despite smaller levels and divergence. Analysts forecast continued bullish activity in the Franc’s price movement.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar is under pressure ahead of the expected Bank of Canada rate cut. A significant cut could weaken the CAD further, pushing prices beyond 1.41774. The RSI shows exaggerated selling levels, while the MACD suggests a deeper retracement possibility. However, current price levels might already represent the bottom before further upward movement.
