Kamala Harris and her US presidential election rival Donald Trump. (AFP)
Many traders and analysts worldwide are staffing their desks through the night, ready for a “Trump Trade.” Many expect Trump to win this year’s election, particularly traders hoping for a more predictable and profitable market. However, we cannot rule out a Harris win, so it’s essential to discuss expectations for both outcomes to inform your trading decisions.
To understand potential trades, let’s examine each candidate’s policies:
Harris: She promises continuity, maintaining economic policies established by Biden. With her in office, the dollar’s value is expected to drop, potentially by up to 5%.
Trump: A Trump win could lead the dollar to soar by over 7% due to importation inflation. Other currencies, such as the Euro and the Mexican Peso, may decline, particularly those impacted by new tariffs.
Stock Market: Analysts predict a moderate rise in the stock market regardless of who wins, but with less movement overall. With the prevailing expectation of a Trump win, the markets anticipate a more predictable path, leading to smaller swings.
When Will the Results Be Announced?
While the exact timing is uncertain, results could be out later this morning or within two days, depending on the speed of vote counting.
Who Is Leading?
According to CNN, preliminary counts in some states show Trump leading: Kentucky (71.8%), Indiana (61.1%), and Florida (51.9%). He currently has 54.9% of the popular vote and leads in electoral votes, with 8 to Harris’s 3.
Track live updates: CNN Election Results.
By: Tim Figueroa, Market Analyst
